COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CRIME PATTERNS ACROSS GEOPOLITICAL ZONES IN NIGERIA: STATISTICAL EVIDENCE FROM 2023 DATA

Abstract

Crime poses profound challenges to security, governance, and development, yet empirical comparative evidence on how offences vary by region remains limited. This study therefore investigates spatial disparities in crime patterns across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones using 2023 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. It focuses on three major categories (offences against persons, property, and lawful authority) to identify which crime types dominate and whether regional differences exist. A quantitative comparative design was employed, drawing on secondary data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics. The dataset comprises aggregated counts of reported offences across geopolitical zones. Analytical procedures included visual representation through bar charts, and inferential tests. Assumption tests of two-way ANOVA were first assessed using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Shapiro–Wilk, and Levene’s tests. Where assumptions were violated, data were log-transformed or analysed with non-parametric alternatives (Kruskal–Wallis and Friedman tests). The findings demonstrate that offence type is a significant determinant of crime variation, with assault, burglary, and breach of peace emerging as dominant categories. Property crimes revealed both offence-type and regional effects, with burglary and unlawful possession disproportionately high in the South West and robbery most prevalent in the South South and North Central. In contrast, offences against persons and lawful authority were mainly shaped by offence type rather than geography. These patterns highlight the interaction between urbanization, socio-economic disparities, and political unrest in shaping Nigeria’s crime landscape. On the policy front, urban policing reforms, targeted highway security, and conflict-resolution mechanisms are critical to addressing the dominant offences in their respective regions. Beyond policing, sustainable reductions in crime depend on tackling structural drivers such as poverty, unemployment, and weak judicial institutions.